Cost and emissions pathways towards net-zero climate impacts in aviation

نویسندگان

چکیده

Aviation emissions are not on a trajectory consistent with Paris Climate Agreement goals. We evaluate the extent to which fuel pathways—synthetic fuels from biomass, synthetic green hydrogen and atmospheric CO2, direct use of liquid hydrogen—could lead aviation towards net-zero climate impacts. Together continued efficiency gains contrail avoidance, but without offsets, such an energy transition could reduce lifecycle CO2 by 89–94% compared year-2019 levels, despite 2–3-fold growth in demand 2050. The sector manage associated cost increases, ticket prices rising no more than 15% no-intervention baseline leading suppression less 14%. These pathways will require discounted investments order US$0.5–2.1 trillion over 30 yr period. However, our CO2-equivalent only 46–69%; action is required mitigate non-CO2 Decarbonization difficult due increasing current lack scalable mitigation technologies. This Analysis examines system improved aircraft technologies, avoidance.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Nature Climate Change

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['1758-6798', '1758-678X']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01485-4